With the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving 2024 event less than 180 days away, the crypto community is buzzing with excitement and anticipation. Will it spark the next crypto bull run, similar to previous halvings? Or will it lead to a more nuanced price movement influenced by a combination of factors?
While past performance does not guarantee future results, the Bitcoin halving history has piqued the interest of investors and analysts alike. Thus, it’s natural to ask: When is the next crypto bull run? What factors can contribute to the next crypto bull run? Is the 2024 Bitcoin bull run guaranteed?
But before answering these questions, let’s get to some basics.
What is Bitcoin halving?
Bitcoin halving is an event where the reward for mining new bitcoins is cut into half every 210,000 blocks later (roughly every four years). This event is designed to reduce the rate at which new bitcoins are created through mining, resulting in a decrease in the asset’s issuance. With a finite supply of only 21 million coins, Bitcoin halvings help control the supply of Bitcoin and keep inflation in check.
Historical records on Bitcoin halving suggest that crypto bull runs almost always follow them, as investors anticipate that the reduced supply of new bitcoins will result in a price rise. Now, will this pattern hold for Bitcoin halving 2024?
Will Bitcoin halving 2024 lead to the next crypto bull run?
To answer this, we will first shift our attention to the Bitcoin halving history.
Historical Patterns of bitcoin halving
Historical patterns of Bitcoin halving
Each of the Bitcoin halving events in the past has led to a rally, as you can see in the chart above.
- Bitcoin Halving 2012: The first event was in 2012, during which the block reward was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
- Bitcoin Halving 2016: The second halving was in 2016, during which the block reward was reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. This event was famously followed by the 2017 crypto bull run.
- Bitcoin Halving 2020: The most recent event occurred in 2020 when the block reward was reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. A rally followed, resulting in Bitcoin reaching its highest price point till date in late 2021.
Thus, these events in the past have led to a price surge, though not immediately. If the same trend follows, the Bitcoin halving 2024 event might also lead to the next crypto bull run. Notably, the event will cut down block rewards to 3.125 BTC this time.
Anticipated ETF approvals
On Jun 15, 2023, BlackRock, a significant investment management firm, filed for a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the name “iShare Bitcoin Trust.” The move attracted substantial attention not only in the Bitcoin space but also among traditional investment circles. There have been more spot BTC ETF applications to follow, and the SEC is expected to make a final decision on them early next year. This could be a significant trigger for the next crypto bull run, along with the Bitcoin halving 2024 event.
Crypto market sentiment upswing
Source | The fear and greed index showing crypto market sentiments as of Nov 8, 2023
Another indication of the 2024 crypto bull run is the market sentiments. On Nov 2, The cryptosphere’s Fear & Greed Index, a barometer of investor sentiment, registered a notable score of 72, indicating the prevailing “greed” sentiment in the market. It’s worth noting that this is the highest level of “greed” seen since November 2021, when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $69,000. This shift in market sentiment has historically been a precursor to price rallies, suggesting an upcoming bull run.
The abovementioned factors are just some observations that “could” contribute to a bull run following bitcoin halving 2024. Still, several macroeconomic factors must align for the bull run to follow.
Source| Macro conditions to align for Bitcoin halving 2024 to start a crypto bull run
Unfortunately, there is no concrete answer to “when is the next crypto bull run.” A crypto bull run following the Bitcoin halving 2024 is just an anticipation of investors. So, is it possible that a crypto bull run might not follow the its halving this time? Let’s see.
Could the next crypto bull run derail?
Despite the bullish narrative surrounding the Bitcoin halving 2024, there are several factors that could derail the crypto bull run that everyone is anticipating. Some of these factors include:
- Lack of demand: If the reduced supply of new BTC is not accompanied by significant demand, prices are unlikely to surge.
- Negative Media Coverage: Negative media coverage focusing on Bitcoin’s security or environmental issues could erode public sentiment and reduce demand.
- Regulatory Crackdown: Stringent regulations or bans by governments could hinder Bitcoin’s adoption and growth.
- Macroeconomic Factors: A prolonged economic downturn or recession could reduce overall investment appetite and negatively impact Bitcoin’s price.
Thus, the next crypto bull run could derail under some circumstances. There is no assurance that Bitcoin’s price will increase after the halving. Even if it does, it will likely reach its full potential only after a year or more, as indicated by Bitcoin halving history and the subsequent price surges.
Uncertainty of the next crypto bull run
Back to the basic questions again, when is the next crypto bull run? Will it follow Bitcoin halving 2024? The answer is that while the current market sentiments indicate a positive outlook, we can not guarantee that no macroeconomic factor will derail the next crypto bull run.
Investors should not mindlessly sit in hopes of a bull run. They must assess multiple factors and conduct thorough analysis before making investment decisions. Diversification and risk management are vital strategies they can consider in this ever-changing landscape.
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