Market Outlook: Markets entered the new week with a complex mix of optimism and anxiety. Between Washington’s shifting tone toward Beijing, accelerating on-chain activity, and heavy ETF outflows, investors are now watching how macro data will feed into the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut on October 29.
Trade Tensions Meet Tentative Optimism
Donald Trump struck a surprising tone on Sunday, saying Chinese President Xi Jinping was “open” to a new trade deal, an encouraging sign after weeks of tariff threats and hostile statements. Yet only hours later, China announced it had “irrefutable evidence” that the U.S. government had launched cyber-attacks against it.
The mixed messages underscore how fragile the relationship remains. Markets welcomed Trump’s remarks as a potential thaw, but Beijing’s accusation reminded traders that any optimism could evaporate fast. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Biscent is set to meet his Chinese counterpart in Malaysia this week to keep dialogue alive.
Crypto Sector: Building Quietly Amid the Storm
Even as market fear spreads, blockchain development continues to rise. According to Chain Broker, top projects showing growth in developer activity include
IOTA (+272 %), RLC (+159 %),
KMD (+84 %), HOT (+61 %),
SOL (+55 %), BNB (+54 %),
VET (+46 %), CCD (+30 %).
It’s a reminder that while traders panic, builders keep building.
On-chain activity confirms that sentiment shift: total transfer volume jumped 2.9 % to $15.3 billion, up from $11 billion earlier in the month, showing renewed network engagement.
Bitcoin’s network strength also hit a historic milestone with a hashrate of 1,104.55 EH/s, the highest ever recorded. But the market side tells a different story.
Bitcoin ETFs See Their First Losing Streak
For the first time since their January launch, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a full week of net outflows. From October 13 to 17, funds saw $1.23 billion in redemptions, while Ethereum ETFs lost $312 million.
BlackRock alone sold nearly $978 million in Bitcoin in a single day. Long-term holders are sending ~40 BTC per day to Binance, compared with 4 BTC previously, suggesting profit-taking after 3–6× gains since 2022. When both institutional investors and long-term whales sell simultaneously, buy-side liquidity dries up fast, and that’s exactly what the market is seeing now.
Yet despite the sell pressure, institutions remain long-term bullish. A joint Coinbase-Glassnode survey of 120 funds found 67 % expect Bitcoin to trade above $130 K within six months. Only 2 % believe the market is in a bear phase. Professional money still sees upside, even if short-term volatility rises.
Institutional Adoption and Regulation
The line between traditional finance and crypto keeps blurring. The CEO of Charles Schwab revealed that the firm’s clients now hold 20 % of all U.S. crypto-linked financial products. Interest in Bitcoin on the platform rose 90 % year-on-year, and Schwab plans to allow crypto trading for its 11 trillion-dollar client base by mid-2026.
At the policy level, major crypto executives from Coinbase, Chainlink, Galaxy, Kraken, Uniswap, Circle, and Ripple will meet with pro-crypto Senate Democrats this Wednesday. Led by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, the discussion aims to accelerate progress on a clear digital-asset market framework, a long-awaited step toward mainstream regulation.
Meanwhile, innovation keeps moving: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin unveiled the GKR protocol, a new zero-knowledge proof system designed to improve ZK-EVM and zk-ML efficiency by removing the need to commit intermediate layers.
Corporate and Protocol Shifts
Forward Industries offered a glimpse of the future of treasury management. The company earns more than 1,000 SOL per day, around $200 K, by staking its $1.5 billion treasury at 7 % yield. With a Solana ETF approval expected soon, more firms could follow. Just ten companies staking similar treasuries could lock up over 33 million SOL, cutting liquid supply dramatically.
Elsewhere, Robinhood tokenized 500 U.S. stocks and ETFs (worth $8.5 million) on Arbitrum, expanding access for EU users to trade traditional assets via blockchain.
Altcoins at Historical Lows
Altcoins are sitting at rock-bottom levels against Bitcoin, forming a four-year falling wedge that mirrors the start of previous cycles:
- 2017 – Altseason
- 2019 – DeFi Season
- 2021 – Altseason
Historically, such deep lows have been the launchpad for strong rebounds, though timing remains uncertain.
Macro: Fed Rate Cuts and an Unusual CPI Week
Markets are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s October 29 meeting, with a 6 % chance of a larger 50-point move by December. Liquidity is expected to return, and risk assets are preparing for it.
But this week’s data may still move the needle. Friday will bring CPI and PMI readings, during a government shutdown, something that hasn’t happened since 2018. Other releases include:
- Tuesday: Big tech and entertainment earnings
- Wednesday: Auto and tech giant reports
- Thursday: Home-sales data and industrial profits
- Friday: CPI inflation and PMI figures
If inflation comes in softer than expected, it reinforces the Fed’s path toward easing. A hot print, however, might cause markets to question whether rate cuts can continue without fueling inflation.
Token Unlocks This Week
AltLayer (ALT)
Date: October 25, 2025
Unlock Value: 2.36M USDT
% of Circulating supply: 2.90%
Number of Tokens: 129.86M ALT
Avail (AVAIL)
Date: October 23, 2025
Unlock Value: 1.32M USDT
% of Circulating supply: 4.36%
Number of Tokens: 153.58M AVAIL
Humanity Protocol (H)
Date: October 25, 2025
Unlock Value: 5.68M USDT
% of Circulating supply: 2.74%
Number of Tokens: 50.00M H
Kaito (KAITO)
Date: October 20, 2025
Unlock Value: 7.21M USDT
% of Circulating supply: 2.96%
Number of Tokens: 7.16M KAITO
LayerZero (ZRO)
Date: October 20, 2025
Unlock Value: 42.42M USDT
% of Circulating supply: 23.13%
Number of Tokens: 25.71M ZRO
MultiBank Group (MBG)
Date: October 22, 2025
Unlock Value: 17.23M USDT
% of Circulating supply: 19.01%
Number of Tokens: 15.84M MBG
Plasma (XPL)
Date: October 25, 2025
Unlock Value: 35.19M USDT
% of Circulating supply: 4.94%
Number of Tokens: 88.89M XPL
Soon (SOON)
Date: October 23, 2025
Unlock Value: 8.66M USDT
% of Circulating supply: 3.87%
Number of Tokens: 10.52M SOON
ZRO’s unlock is particularly large, over 23 % of circulating supply, which could add short-term volatility to its price.
Outlook
The weekend’s headlines capture the dual nature of today’s markets: constructive long-term developments but fragile short-term sentiment. Trade talks might cool global tensions, developers are building, and institutions are accumulating, but ETF outflows, token unlocks, and macro uncertainty still weigh on risk assets.
Whether this week turns bullish or bearish depends largely on Friday’s CPI print and how the Fed interprets it. If inflation is tame and the Fed cuts as expected, liquidity could flow back to crypto and equities. If not, volatility may be the only certain thing.
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