Trade Tensions Ease, Risk Appetite Returns
While crypto buzzed around, global summits trade news offered fresh optimism.
China’s Vice Minister of Commerce confirmed that Beijing and Washington reached consensus on key trade issues, including export controls, tariff suspensions, and fentanyl-related measures. The discussions were described as “constructive and candid,” and both sides will now start internal approvals before a public announcement.
At the same time, Donald Trump said he was ready to cut tariffs on Brazil under the right conditions. Talks between the US and China in Malaysia were also labeled as “productive.” Even Canada paused its “Reagan Tariffs” campaign after Trump ended trade talks with Ottawa, signaling a possible reset in relations.
Together, these moves created a calmer global mood. The S&P 500 has now gained over $3 trillion in value since October 10, when Trump first announced the China tariffs, making this “the most profitable market of all time,” as one analyst put it.
BASE and Coinbase in the Spotlight
The weekend brought renewed excitement around Coinbase’s BASE network. A new report from JPMorgan Chase, which manages over $3.9 trillion in assets, estimated that the upcoming $BASE token could reach a market cap between $12 billion and $34 billion. If accurate, BASE could become one of the most valuable infrastructure tokens in the crypto market.
Supporting this optimism, data from DeBridge showed a noticeable shift of liquidity from other networks into Base. Developers and traders are increasingly choosing Base for its low fees and fast transactions, hinting that Coinbase’s ecosystem may soon dominate the Layer-2 competition.
Crypto Rebounds With Macro Tailwinds
Crypto mirrored the improving risk sentiment.
In the early hours of Monday, more than $160 million in short positions were liquidated, triggering a major short squeeze across exchanges. Soon after, Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back to $115,000, driven by optimism around the US–China trade deal. It currently trades near $116,000, showing that macro headlines remain the biggest short-term driver of crypto moves.
The Fed’s Big Week: Rate Decision Ahead
All eyes now turn to the Federal Reserve, which meets on Wednesday, October 30.
The schedule:
- 6:00 p.m. UTC, Rate decision
- 6:30 p.m. UTC, Press conference by Jerome Powell
Markets are pricing in a 98.3% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut, with expectations that Powell might hint at the end of quantitative tightening (QT). If he confirms that the tightening phase is over, liquidity could flood back into risk assets, crypto included.
This would align with a Forbes report suggesting that Wall Street is quietly preparing for a $6.6 trillion policy reversal by the Fed, which could release massive liquidity into the system. The timing couldn’t be more crucial: easing trade tensions, a rising stock market, and growing demand for risk all converge this week.
Key Events Coming Up This Week
- Monday: US new home sales data
- Tuesday: US consumer confidence index
- Wednesday: Fed rate decision + tech earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta
- Thursday: Trump–Xi summit + ECB and Bank of Canada rate decisions + Apple and Amazon earnings
- Friday: US PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred gauge
Together, these events will determine whether the market’s optimism survives or fades.
If the Fed cuts rates and maintains a dovish tone while trade relations keep improving, the bullish momentum could continue. But if inflation data comes in hot or Powell signals caution, we could see a sharp reversal in both stocks and crypto.
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Final Thoughts
The past weekend was calm but full of signals. Liquidity is returning, trade tensions are easing, and the Fed stands ready to confirm a major policy shift. This mix could either set off another leg higher for both traditional and crypto markets, or end the rally if the tone turns cautious.
Either way, the next few days will be defining.
Millionero does not provide financial advice. Always DYOR. Learn more on blog.millionero.com. When ready, trade spot and perpetuals on Millionero.