The Federal Reserve is just hours away from its big October rate decision. Markets expect another 0.25% rate cut, but what really matters is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says after.
Here’s a quick breakdown of what to watch and what’s at stake.
What the Fed Is Expected to Do
- Cut interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the target to 3.75%–4.00%
- Signal that more cuts could come if the economy stays soft
- Possibly hint at ending quantitative tightening (QT) soon
The US economy is slowing. Job growth has weakened. Inflation is coming down. That gives the Fed room to ease off.
Most big banks, like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, agree that today’s cut is likely, and that a third cut in December is still possible.
The Real Focus: Powell’s Tone
The rate cut is mostly priced in. Traders care more about Powell’s press conference.
If he:
- Keeps the door open to more cuts → markets will likely rally
- Hints at a pause or sounds cautious → stocks and crypto could chop
People will listen closely to his words about the job market, inflation, and QT.
One big question: Will he mention ending QT? That would mean the Fed is done draining cash from the system, and that’s good news for risk assets.
What Powell Might Say
Here’s what analysts think he might repeat or update:
- “We remain data-dependent” (meaning: wait and see)
- “Inflation has eased, but we’re not done yet”
- “We’re watching signs of tighter liquidity”
The safest bet is that Powell will stay balanced: cautious, but not alarmed. He’ll want to avoid scaring markets or sounding too aggressive.
Why Crypto Cares
Crypto markets are having a mixed month. Bitcoin is around $113K, Ethereum slightly above $4,000. Traders are hoping Powell stays dovish.
If the Fed cuts today and hints at more to come, while also ending QT, that’s a green light for crypto.
Plus: everyone’s still watching for ETF approvals, which are on pause due to the U.S. government shutdown. Once the shutdown ends, altcoin ETFs like XRP could finally launch.
📅 What’s Next
- 6 PM UTC: FOMC statement released
- 6:30 PM UTC: Powell speaks live
- Market reaction: Expect moves in stocks, bonds, and crypto within minutes
This could set the tone for the rest of 2025.
Not financial advice, just the facts, fast.
Trade spot and perps on Millionero, and follow the action at blog.millionero.com.